jakke asked: Do you think there's any chance Romney will win this fall? If so, what would make it most likely to happen?
I gonna be “that guy” and play the “it’s too early to tell” card. But I will say this: I think somewhere between 65-75% of the voting population has already decided who they are going to vote for, and that’s that. There’d have to be a serious political folly on one of the candidates’ sides for people in this group to change their minds.
The only thing I think Romney can do at this point to secure more votes is name an attractive VP running mate that can pick up the demographics he can’t on his own. The three names I keep hearing thrown around:
- Chris Christie: A lot of Republicans like Christie, and this would force Obama to campaign harder in New Jersey, which has historically been a blue state (since 1988 to be exact). However, Christie has openly stated repeatedly that he’s comfortable in his position as governor, and wouldn’t be too thrilled with being VP.
- Marco Rubio- Another guy who seems a little reluctant to be Romney’s running mate. The argument here is that he’d help the Romney campaign reach out to the latino vote, but you could argue that he’s Cuban, not Mexican, so he couldn’t reach out to that demographic as well as it might initially seem.
- Paul Ryan- Despite (or maybe because of) all the heat he’s been getting for his recent budget proposal, Ryan is another possibility a lot of Republicans would be happy with as a VP candidate.
Then of course there’s the possibility of Romney picking a former rival in Gingrich (*wince*) or Santorum (*cringe*), which might do well to unify the party, but would also further distance him from the ever-elusive voters in the “middle” of the political spectrum.
But to get back to your original question, if the vote was held tomorrow, I think Obama would win. Yes, there are a lot of people who don’t like him and even more that voted for him in 2008 but have been disappointed by his administration thus far, but I just haven’t seen enough enthusiasm and, more importantly, unity coming from the opposition yet.


